***THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS RELEASED BY WILL LANXTON, METEOROLOGIST WITH THE GEORGIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY/HOMELAND SECURITY***
A strong low-pressure system over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front through Georgia on Saturday night and Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are likely across Georgia with all severe weather hazards possible — tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail — as a broken line of storms moves through with possible supercells out ahead. Severe weather could begin as early as Saturday afternoon, but the most likely window for strong storms is late Saturday night for northern and western Georgia and Sunday morning and afternoon for eastern and southern Georgia.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of northern and western Georgia in their Day 4 30% risk area — equivalent to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) — with the remainder of Georgia in a Day 4 and Day 5 15% risk area, equivalent to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). With this system still being over 3 days away, expect changes to these products as the severe weather risk comes more into focus. Some flash flooding and river flooding will also be possible with any heavier rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for areas generally north and west of the I-85 Corridor on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
There is still uncertainty with the high-end potential of this system as it moves over Georgia. Confidence is higher in a significant severe weather event occurring west of Georgia in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama during the day on Saturday. Wind shear values will be quite high in northern and western Georgia, which opens up the possibility for a high-end severe weather event. The limiting factor may be how much energy the environment can provide for these storms to tap into, especially with it being an overnight event. Confidence may not increase one way or the other until we get a better idea of what the environment looks like over Georgia on Saturday.
Continue to monitor updates throughout the week from the Storm Prediction Center, your local National Weather Service office, and reliable media outlets. With this event being overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, make sure you can receive severe weather alerts while asleep and have a tornado safety plan established beforehand.
